A sub-Saharan spring?

North Africa’s spirit of protest will spread south

Nov 17th 2011 | from The World In 2012 print edition

Enlarge

The successful uprisings of 2011 in north Africa were closely watched farther south on the continent. They have already spawned some local protest movements—as in Burkina Faso—and are inspiring talk of more. Authoritarian rulers in sub-Saharan Africa can expect a year of growing opposition and attempts to dethrone them. The dynamics are likely to be somewhat different from those on the Mediterranean shore, where protesters were richer and better informed. The protest bug is catching, nonetheless. In places like Uganda, the downtrodden are hailing the liberators of Tunis, Tripoli and Cairo as role models, creating cross-African political connections rarely seen in recent decades.
As in north Africa, mobile communication and social media are popular on the rest of the continent, and not just in rich enclaves. More than 1m Nigerians have a BlackBerry. Africa as a whole has more mobile phones than America. This means that traditional impediments to political organisation for opposition groups are weakening. And there is no shortage of things to protest about. Jobs are rare and food prices are rising. The cost of staples has grown by multiples thanks to high demand and a rise in the cost of fuel needed to produce and transport them. Africans have been beneficiaries of the resource boom too, earning fees from oil and minerals. But the benefits go primarily to the powerful.

Related topics

• Kenya
• Zimbabwe
• Angola
• Sub-Saharan Africa
• Sudan

Ripe for rebellion
Angola and Equatorial Guinea are prime examples. Both are ruled by resource-peddling strongmen—each in power for 32 years, making them Africa's longest-serving leaders since the ousting and killing of Muammar Qaddafi in Libya after 41 years. They are the second- and fourth-biggest oil producers in sub-Saharan Africa. Yet most people there live on less than $1 a day. What has held back the masses from rising up so far is the memory of past turmoil. Both countries lost large parts of the population to political violence in recent decades. But the examples of successful north African uprisings, seen on satellite television, are changing the dynamic. Protests, if so far rare, have shaken the capitals of both countries and are likely to recur in 2012.
The distribution of resource wealth is also once again fuelling conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The tightening of America's trade rules has resulted in a virtual standstill in mining in the volatile eastern part of the country, until recently the source of rare metals used by American manufacturers. Some unemployed local miners talk of joining militias to earn a living, even if that might undermine efforts to get over a conflict that has killed 5m people in the past 15 years. The economy has collapsed. Unless action is taken to put it together again, bloodshed is likely, though not a resumption of actual war. Television pictures from north Africa have reminded many that there are alternatives to accepting one's fate.
The most obvious impact of the north African uprising will be felt in the neighbouring Sahel states. Niger, Chad and Mali had close links with Colonel Qaddafi and on occasion benefited from his largesse. His successors are likely to invest in Libya rather than abroad. Furthermore, the departure of tens of thousands of migrant Sahel workers from Libya means an end of the remittances they send home. Local mercenaries once in the colonel's pay will also trickle back. All this sets the scene for the rise of protest movements.
The Sahel states' two biggest neighbours, Nigeria and Sudan, already have them—the armed kind. In Nigeria, an Islamic extremist group, Boko Haram, has stepped up its campaign of violence. In Sudan, several militias are stranded on the wrong side of the north-south border following the division of the country in July 2011, and are fighting mini-insurgencies.

Foreign investors will want to choose their destinations carefully

This has little to do with the uprisings in north Africa, except that they gave supposed legitimacy to anyone defying political elites. That also applies to countries facing elections in 2012. Latent conflicts in Africa frequently flare up at such times. Zimbabwe and Kenya suffered horrendous violence during past polls. Both are due to have new ones in the next 12 months and opposition movements feel buoyed by the success of Arab rebels to the north. Kenya may avoid a repeat of the 2008 bloodletting, but not Zimbabwe, where Robert Mugabe's regime is fighting for its life (and wealth).
Although Africa faces a protest-laden year, this does not signal a return to the large-scale conflicts of the past. Civil wars in Sudan and Angola have most likely ended for good. The general atmosphere in sub-Saharan Africa is almost as hopeful as farther north. Overall GDP growth is strong thanks to the resource boom and improved economic management. Political protests will not change that. But foreign investors—now queuing up at African airports in ever larger numbers—will want to choose their destinations carefully. Nine African leaders have been in power for more than two decades (see map). Some of them could quickly turn from dependable, if blood-stained, partners to has-beens. By comparison, African democracies with regular and orderly changes in leadership, such as Ghana and South Africa, will look even more attractive in 2012.